The Bellwether


The Bellwether Vol. 3 No. 7

Vol. 3 No. 7

July 31, 2014


SSI Group, Inc.: The primary beneficiary of global retail expansion

Peso Yield Curve: Market activity limited at the front end

Philippine Power Sector: Lower electricity cost

Concepcion Industrial Corporation: Picking up steam

Crown Asia Chemicals Corporation: Revenue boost 2H15 from PPR Plant

Philippine Consumer Sector: Ready to rebound

The Bellwether Vol. 3 No. 6

Vol. 3 No. 6

June 30, 2015


Philippine Power Industry: El Niño, outages risk brownouts anew

Defensive market on global developments

Semirara Mining & Power Corporation: Increased coal reserves means prolonged mine life

Robinsons Land Corporation: A bet on recurring income

DMCI Holdings, Inc.: Ironing a small wrinkle

The Bellwether Vol. 3 No. 5

Vol. 3 No. 5

May 31, 2015


Philippine Property Industry: Onwards, Upwards

Improved liquidity on US hike view

Ayala Land, Inc.: Earning driven by higher margins

Melco Crown (Philippines) Resorts Corporation: CoDM development seen mounting losses for 2015

GT Capital Holdings, Inc.: Banking, Automobile business drives income to new territories


Vol. 3 No. 4

April 30, 2015


Stocks rally on earnings and exuberance

Weak trading due to lack of domestic leads

Water Utilities Industry: Loss of revenue claims against MWSS

BDO Unibank, Inc.: Capital raising is imminent

SSI Group, Inc.: Rapid expansion boosts earnings by 62.7%

The Bellwether

Vol. 3 No. 3

March 31 ,2015


US interest rate policy loses its sting for now

Yields rose on defensive market

Metropolitan Bank & Trust Co.: Strong core business

BDO Unibank, Inc.: The largest branch network

The Bellwether

Vol. 3 No. 2

February 28, 2015


Corporate Earnings: Property and consumer sectors uplift initial results

Curve steepened amid short duration strategy

Ayala Land, Inc.: 2020-40 Plan: PHP40bn earnings by 2020

Manila Water Company, Inc.: Earnings flat amid delay in arbitration

Integrated Microelectronics, Inc.: Income surged from lackluster years


Vol. 3 No. 1

January 31, 2015


Philippine Gaming Sector: Resilient to economic slowdown

Treasury gains on oil price drop and global demand for safety

SM Prime Holdings, Inc.: Jazz Residences leads SMDC expansion

PSEi Price Performance: Conglomerate leading the pack

Foreign Direct Investment: Hitting historical high of USD5bn



Vol. 2 No. 13

December 30, 2014


PSEi has legs to withstand EM storm.

Yields rose amid firmer US dollar and profit taking at long-end.

LT Group, Inc.: Conglomerate-wide recovery


Vol. 2 No. 12

November 30, 2014


Mining Sector: Nickel rebounds.

Yield curve flatten amid inflation and GDP outlook.

Metro Pacific Investments Corporation: Earnings in line with target.

3Q2014 GDP: A surprise of 5.3% growth disappoints.

Energy Development Corporation: Burgos Project improves earnings outlook.


Vol. 2 No. 11

October 30, 2014


Net Foreign Direct Investment: Hitting historical high of USD4bn.

Yields drop on BSP pause.

ABS-CBN Corporation: Profit recovery in 2015 as elections draw near.

Philippine Banking Sector: Capital raising.

Manila Water Company, Inc.: Arbitration overhang.

Philippine Conglomerates: Gearing up.

Philippine Telecommunications Sector: Stimulating internet usage.

Metro Pacific Investments Corporation: PPP challenges.

International Container Terminal Services, Inc.: Manila port congestion a boon.

Philippine Gaming Sector: Betting on new capacity as market grows.

bellwether sept.

Vol. 2 No. 10

September 30, 2014 


Philippine Power Sector: Firms fill in power gap in the Philippines.

Philippine Banking Sector: First half review.



Vol. 2 No. 9

August 30, 2014


D&L Industries, Inc.: Earnings to rise faster on Chemrez Technologies' acquisition.

Sinophil Corporation: Belle secures SINO's pure gaming play ambition.

Foreign buying drove short-term yields to lower levels.

Metro Pacific Investments Corporation: 1H core earnings up by 18% despite regulatory hurdles.

8990 Holdings, Inc. eyes Php4bn 2014 earnings as 1H net income soars 20% to Php1.8bn.

Toyota Motor Philippines Corporation: In full capacity on strong car demand.


Vol. 2 No. 8

July 31, 2014


Philippine Gaming Industry: To be taxed or not to be taxed?

Alsons Consolidated Resources, Inc.: Execution risk still a main concern in power expansion.

Travellers International Hotel Group, Inc.: Revenue boost on gaming and hotel expansion.


Vol. 2 No. 7

May 30, 2014


El Niño: Risk to energy, agriculture and food prices.

Trans-Asia Oil and Energy Development Corp.: Transitioning to a bigger power generation company.

Semirara Mining Corp.: Strong 1Q14 results despite power downtime.

Philippine Economy: GDP slowest in 9 qtrs at 5.7% in 1Q14.

Tanduay Distillers, Inc.: A long way back to the top.


Vol. 2 No. 6

May 15, 2014


Market Outlook II.

Surprise credit rating upgrade led to Treasury rally.

ABS-CBN Corporation: 7% earnings growth in 1Q14.

Filinvest Land, Inc. rides the property upturn.

D&L Industries: Keeping up the positive trends.


Vol. 2 No. 5

April 30, 2014


Market Outlook.

Yields to inch up as the market remains edgy.

Bank of the Philippine Islands: Php20bn net income or 6% growth for 2014.

Meralco 1Q14 industrial energy sales up +5.2%, but core income flat on lower tariff and +2% overall volume.


Vol. 2 No. 4

March 15, 2014


Philex Mining Corp. swings to higher profit on full-year production.

Peso yield curve may rise on proactive BSP stance.

Telcos more robust in 2013 on data business; higher dividend paying capacity in 2014.

AC Energy to power Ayala Corp's net asset value of Php662/share.


Vol. 2 No. 3

February 28, 2014


Metro Pacific Investments recycles capital.
International Container Terminal Services, Inc. expanding footprint in Africa and Latin America.

GT Capital Holdings, Inc. riding the growth of the Philippine economy.

Globe Telecom, Inc. postpaid market driving growth.

ABS-CBN Corporation: First mover advantage in digital terrestiral TV.


Vol. 2 No. 2

February 15, 2014


No worries on China's debts.

Meralco: Will replacement power mitigate the power rate hike?

Energy Development Corporation: Leyte is up and running, ahead of expectation.

San Miguel Corporation ready for 14.2km Skyway III.



Vol. 2 No. 1

January 15, 2014


Philippines Power Sector: Caught in the crossfire.

First Gen Corporation: More cash for expansion.

Aboitiz Power Corporation levers up.

Vol. 1 No. 35 

December 30, 2013


China's Challenges.

Aboitiz Power Corp.'s income trough in 2013, to rebound in 2014.

DNL Industries, Inc. may have hit its profit guidance.

Vol. 1 No. 34

December 17, 2013


FDIs, infra spending and manufacturing bounce are PSEi drivers in 2014.

Steady yields ahead of Fed taper.

Megawide now a full-fledged infra bet as it takes on Php31bn Mactan International Airport.

San Miguel Pure Foods Company, Inc. may hit Php5bn earnings in 2014.

Vol. 1 No. 33

October 15, 2013


Lafarge Republic Inc. rides the infra wave.

Yield curve has room to drop.

JG Summit Holdings, Inc. sees 19% equity IRR in Meralco acquisition.

Emperador Inc.: The Power of the Liquor Brand.

Marcventures Holdings, Inc. hits full year 2013 earnings target of Php1bn in 9 months.

Special Issue No. 5

October 8, 2013


After growing at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 34% from 2004 to 2012, the business process outsourcing (BPO) industry has already grown by 15.6% to $15bn as of the first 6 months of this year. This translates to the industry now employing around 900k Filipinos. At its current pace, we believe that it is very much possible for this industry to hit $25bn in revenues by 2016 and employ 1.3mn, and supporting 3.2mn indirect jobs. It is estimated that this sector will contribute around 9% of GDP, equal to OFW remittances following current growth rates.

Vol. 1 No. 32

September 18,  2013


Chasing the Gaming Dream.

Yield curve dropped on US Fed taper delay.

Positioning SMPH for the next stage of growth.

Universal Robina Corporation ripe for the picking.


Vol. 1 No. 31

August 30, 2013


US Fed QE3 exit increasingly for real.

2Q2013 GDP growth breaks away from decade trend of Philippine election years.

AP clinches 120MW ancillary contract, works out lower steam pricing with Chevron.

Despite the mining gloom, MARC overhauls and delivers.

D&L Industries, Inc. on track with full year Php1.38bn earnings guidance; we estimate a minimum 15% 2014 earnings growth.

Nickel Asia Corp.'s pilot plants to expand mining operations for other metals.

Special Issue No. 3

August 12, 2013


2Q2013 Banking Update: Banks book the last of big time one time gains?

East West Bank: Branching ahead of peers for consumer loan edge.

Asia United Bank aims to be a Php300bn bank in asset size in 5 years.

Gone were SECB's Treasury Bonanzas?

Vol. 1 No. 30

July 31, 2013


Strong 2Q2013 GDP growth.

Yield curve to trade sideways.

D&L Industries, Inc. high margin product tack rolls on and is key to earnings.

Philippine National Bank breaks away from flat: 20% max income growth likely in 2014.

Puregold Price Club, Inc. 2Q2013 earnings likely to show acceleration.


Vol. 1 No. 29

July 15, 2013


The Trouble with China.

Yields to fall on SDA phase out.

China and Fed exit magnify money flow reversal.

SM Prime Holdings, Inc. tags merger as EPS accretive.

Cebu Air, Inc. sees 2013 as recovery year.


Vol. 1 No. 28

June 30, 2013


US growth track argues for delayed QE3 exit.

Yields have room to fall on repositioning.

Emerging Markets money flow reversal turns into currency rout: India is weakest link.

Bloomberry Resorts Corporation to erase deficit next year.

Philippine Business Bank branch expansion and dividends underway.

Earnings to Watch: Vista Land and Lifescapes, Inc., Filinvest Land, Inc., and Ayala Land, Inc.

Vol. 1 No. 27

June 15, 2013


Emerging markets skid on a money flow reversal; end of easy money?

Yields to normalize downard.

Globe Telecom, Inc. and ABS-CBN Corporation leapfrog to media convergence.

MPI's dividends rises to 25% (of current year's income) in 2015; sees Php7.5bn - Php7.7bn 2013 earnings.


Vol. 1 No. 26

May 30, 2013


1Q2013 GDP growth momentum peaks in 2Q2013.

Yields up on profit taking, possible Fed easing cutback.

Meralco's earnings boosters.

Petron Corporation may hit Php8bn to Php10bn in earnings.

Special Issue No. 2

May 16, 2013


Philippine Business Bank (PBB) could very well be the bank of choice for Small and Medium Enterprises (SME). In expansion mode, PBB has put up 2 branches 4 months into the year. This will rise to 100 by year-end. PBB will be putting up branches in SME growth centers in the Cagayan province, Ilocos, Isabela, 3 branches in Visayas, and 4 branches in Mindanao. The goal is to have 100 branches by year-end.


Vol. 1 No. 25

May 15, 2013


Aboitiz Land could be AEV's next value driver.

Yield curve to move sideways on lack of firmer leads.

Philex Mining Corporation fast-tracks Php12bn rights offer, denies preemptive rights to foreign resident shareholders.

Manila Mining Corporation's Placer copper gold mine to re-open in 2H2014 at 10k tons ore/day.



Vol. 1 No. 24

April 30, 2013


Strong start for 1Q2013 earnings.

Lower inflation expectations may jumpstart repositioning.

Meralco achieves 1Q2013 core earnings growth of 18% to Php4bn on flat energy sales.

DMCI Holdings, Inc. infra book swells from Php14bn to a likely Php57.5bn.

SM Development Corp. sees Metro Manila high rise market as far from saturated, but 1Q2013 unit pre-sales slightly lower at Php2,056.

AT sees 15% full year 2013 earnings after posting 1Q2013 core earnings growth of 92% to Php504mn.


Vol. 1 No. 23

April 15, 2013


Corporate earnings growth to accelerate.

Speculations on SDA rate cut may push yields down.

Filinvest Land, Inc. backed by robust economy.

Vista Land and Lifescapes, Inc. sees 20% earnings growth to Php5.2bn.



Vol. 1 No. 22

March 30,  2013


Government lifts ban on minim permits; positive but no big deal for some.

Long end positions might shift to the belly.

Competition hits AP's hold on ancillary market; comeback of geothermal unit in 2H2013 is key to earnings.

Scandium plant may be NIKL's second upside.

Galoc oil field ramp-up and wider margins boost OV's earnings back to Php1bn.


Vol. 1 No. 21

March 13, 2013


Puregold Price Club Inc. drives Alcorn's transition to Cosco Capital.

Demand shifted to the belly.

Metro Pacific Investments Corp. turns capex-heavy anew with PPP bag, balance sheet accommodative, 2012 earnings up 28%.

Filinvest Land, Inc. seeks more debt for project funding to max out ROE above 10%.

PSEi may move higher on month-end window dressing.


Vol. 1 No. 20

February 28, 2013


Pepsi's volume opens strong in month of January 2013, profit outlook upbeat in election year.

Yield curve uptick on inflation risk.

Election spending and power generation lift LPZ's profit outlook.

Atlas Consolidated Mining and Development Corporation eyes close to Php5bn 2013 earnings.

D&L Industries, Inc. and smuggling blues.

Philippine National Bank likely made Php5bn 2012 earnings.

PSEi may move higher on month-end window dressing.

Vol. 1 No. 19

February 20, 2013


Philippine Business Bank: A catalyst of the SME growth story.

Globalization and Government Program push SME as the next growth sector.

Why the SME is the next growth sector?

Philippine Banks face sustainable profit growth outllook.

Vol. 1 No. 18

January 30, 2013


Holdings and industrials to rise in 2013.

Yield curve vulnerable to profit-taking.

Philex Petroleum Corporation has another ace up it's sleeve.

Meralco from distribution utility to electricity reseller.

Energy Development Corporation recommissions 55MW plant 1.

FPH cuts debt cost; sees 57% earnings growth to Php7.4bn on FGEN and Rockwell contributions.

Nickel Asia Corporation may achieve Php4.2bn in 2014 on 2nd HPAL.

Vol. 1 No. 17

January 18, 2013


Corporate earnings will sustain.

Room for yield curve drop.

Oriental Peninsula Resources Group, Inc.'s earnings accelerate.

Atlas Consolidated Mining and Development Corporation beats 2014 deadline for ouput ramp up.

STI Education System Holdings, Inc. may pleasantly surprise on school acquisition.

PSEi continued to trek higher as momentum still favors the bulls.

Vol. 1 No. 16

December 15, 2012


Upgrading GT Capital's target price to Php721/share.

Further yield curve downshift.

DMCI Holdings Inc. builds up mining to 28% of our NAV/share estimate of Php58.00.

Semirara Mining Corp.'s 17% earnings growth in 2013 to Php7.2bn.

Central bank actions seen to influence stock movements this week.

Vol. 1 No. 15

November 29, 2012


San Miguel Corporation eyes Php200bn borrowings.

Further yield curve downshift.

Trans-Asia Oil and Energy Development Corporation is RP's biggest wind energy provider in 3 years, to spend Php51bn for 400MW capacity.

Tough Basel 3 capital calls prompts LTG to eye BPI.

PSEi to pullback given its rise to recent highs.

Vol. 1 No. 14

November 15, 2012


FGEN breaks into ancillary market.

Peso curve downshifts as inflation beats full year target.

PSEi traded lower due to uncertainties abroad.

Metro Pacific's tough capex call in Maynilad's 5th regulatory period.

Aboitiz Power: Strong spot and ancillary prices mute the geothermal unit's weakness.

STI Holdings Inc. eyes Php790mn earnings in 2012.

D&L Industries Inc.'s Initial Public Offering.

Vol. 1 No. 13

November 7, 2012


Manila Water Company's Indonesian thrust to contribute 12% earnings.

Inflation expected to rise by end-December.

PSEi to hover above the 5,400-mark.

Meralco likely to beat 2012 Php15.5bn profit guidance.

Benguet Corporation takes over Nickel Mining.

Petron Corporation's sales volume to rise in election year 2013; margins to improve on refinery expansion.

Semirara Mining Corporation's Calaca hikes load factor on imported coal; eyes open access clients.

Vol. 1 No. 12

October 18, 2012


Oriental Petroleum may double earnings on Galoc 2's commercialization in 2014.

After RTBs, rates to come off.

JG Summit Holdings, Inc. to profit from 2013 election year.

Local equities seen to continue emulating bourses abroad.

Philweb Corporation tests RP's online gaming saturation.

Nihao and Dizon Mines fold in assets under ASX-listed JV company.

Vol. 1 No. 11

October 2, 2012


Lepanto Corporation's far south-east gold find positively surprises.

Interest rates still down by year-end.

LT Group Inc. eyes premium of 3bn overseas share equity placement.

PX to make last shipment after Padcal's shutdown $2mn worth; fast-tracks Tailings Dam leak repair.

AGI's is cheap, PE of 12.6x on projected minimum 20% earnings growth in 2013 to Php12.2bn.

Coal Asia Holdings: A play on coal and oil.

Vol. 1 No. 10

September 14, 2012


Metro Pacific Investments' Rail and Road Projects take off.

Interest rates still down by year-end.

PSEi boosted by global optimism over ECB's Bond Buying Program.

Aboitiz Power Corporation's steam cost rises.

Benguest Corporation restructures.

Tanduay Holdings Inc. converts to LT Group

Vol. 1 No. 9

August 30, 2012


GT Capital: Outperformance across industries.

Interest rates on upward bias.

Rockwell Land Corporation eyes Php1.1bn in 2012 earnings.

PSEi may be lifted by month-end window-dressing.

Marcventures Holdings Inc. eyes 1.5m ton shipment in 2013.


Vol. 1 No. 8

August 15, 2012


Exchange -Traded Funds on take off; draft rules out.

Interest rates on upward bias.

DMC trades off Maynilad with mining.

Energy Development Corporation lifts earnings guidance to "more than" Php7.3bn.

PSEi: Trading on a tight range.

Tanduay Holdings Corporation: A story of mergers, synergies and turnarounds.

Oriental Peninsula Resources Group, Inc. steps up shipments.


Vol. 1 No. 7

July 30, 2012


PS Bank: Higher shareholder value creation.

Interest rates sideways to down.

Aboitiz Power recommending a hold (from buy) due to steam supply and electricity sales contract execution risk.

PSEi sluggish on bleak economic outlook.

Buy PLDT on easing industry competitive pressures helping EBITDA Margin and Valuation below regional PE of 20x.


Vol. 1 No. 6

July 15, 2012


Mining EO 79 benign to large scale miners; adverse to small operators.

Interest rates continue to move downward.

AP eclipses San Miguel Energy as the country's biggest power company in 2015.

Meralco's 1H2012 cash dividends likely at minimum of Php3.35/share on minimum dividend payout of 50% of 1H2012 earnings.

LC's FTAA not covered by MPSA Moratorium.

PSEi moving in a tight range.


Vol. 1 No. 5

June 29, 2012


Dizon Copper-Silver Mine Inc.'s Tailings Dam Project is key to share price run.

Interest rates sideways to downward.

FGEN's cheap vs. earnings prospects.

Oriental Peninsula Resources Group, Inc. ships 2m tons of low grade nickel ore in 1H2012; eyes 4m tons for whole of 2012.

Philex won't repeat 2011's Php5.6Bn record net income.

PSEi near-term uncertainty.

Vol. 1 No. 4

June 22, 2012


China India Update: Growth rebound after retreat.

Interest rates sideways to downward.

Philex Petroleum Corporation $150mn for Galoc Phase 2 Expansion and higher contingent reserves for Sampaguita Gas seen in 2013.

Nickel Asia Corporation: A buy at 10x PE with earnings powered by unlocked reserves, higher shipments and 2nd processing plant.

PSEi to consolidate this week.

Energy Development Corporation: Bacman's Commercial Operation in 4Q12 snagged anew.

Vol. 1 No. 3

June 1, 2012


Banks' trading windfall in 1Q2012.

Interest rates on upward bias.

Meralco's Php15bn earnings guidance may be raised.

Benguet Corporation doubles 2012 earnings; set to dividend.

Nickel Asia Corporation higher earnings in 2013.

PSEi Outlook: Sideways with a downward bias.

Philex Mining Corporation earnings likely peaked in 2011; PX braces for dropping gold grade and metal output.

Lepanto Consolidated Mining Co. regulatory stall.

Vol. 1 No. 2

May 17, 2012


Bigger oil reserves boost PXP's target price.

Interest rates are sideways to downward.

Petron Corp. expansion will double cash.

PSEi outlook trading sideways.

Bloom's top-up private placement propped by Casino's 35% ROI.

Nihao Mineral Resources Int'l Inc.'s resource hitch.

Puregold Price Club Inc. S&R acquisition; EPS Neutral.

Semirara Mining Corp. flat 1Q12 earnings.